My Predictions for 2008

Posted by CBC-Network | Dec 12, 2007 | Article

When the CBC asked me to play Nostradamus and prognosticate on how I see bioethical and biotechnological issues playing out this year, I had a good idea about much of what I would say. And most of it wasn’t very encouraging.

But then something very big happened that made me glad I hadn’t written this article last month: Scientists in Japan and the United States ‘reprogrammed’ human skin cells back to a stem cell state. And the world shifted.

Why are ‘Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells’ (iPSCs), as they are called, so important? For years, ‘the scientists’ have told us that the ‘gold standard’ of stem cell research and regenerative medicine is the ability to create patient-specific, tailor-made, pluripotent stem cells (those which in theory can become any kind of tissue in the body), that could be used in patients without tissue rejection. Until recently, it was thought that such cells could only come from human somatic cell nuclear transfer cloning—with all of its attendant moral and ethical problems (exploiting women for eggs, creating human life as an experiment, etc.). But now, scientists appear to have circumvented the ethical issue. And, like I said, the world shifted and took on a somewhat brighter hue.

With this in mind, here are my predictions for 2008:

Research into human iPSCs will advance toward overcoming the need to use viruses in the cell reprogramming : Creating the iPSCs is accomplished by injecting genes into the cells. These genes reprogram the cells back to a stem-cell state. Presently, injecting the genes requires retroviruses as the delivery vehicles. With iPSCs now offering so much hope, I believe that scientists will energetically engage the problem and advance substantially in 2008 toward learning how to reprogram cells without using viruses—a big step toward being able to use them in human treatments.

The first human cloned embryonic stem cell line will be created : The great iPSC breakthrough has damaged societal support for human cloning research. But some scientists are not amused, seeing human cloning as extending well beyond embryonic stem cell research, for example, in learning how to genetically engineer embryos or in fetal farming for organs. Encouraged by recent successes in monkey cloning—and to regain political momentum—expect some scientists to work zealously to demonstrate that human cloning can indeed be accomplished. As a result, I predict world headlines when scientists announce that they have derived the first cloned human embryonic stem cell lines from cloned human embryos.

Methods will be advanced toward obtaining human eggs without requiring super-ovulation : One of the prime impediments to human cloning is a lack of the tens of thousands of human eggs that may be required to perfect the procedure. (One egg is needed for each somatic cell nuclear transfer attempt.) Some scientists want to use animal eggs to create human ‘cybrid’ embryos. But the most likely way around the ‘resource’ problem is to find ways to obtain bounteous supplies of human eggs without requiring women to go through the onerous procedure known as super-ovulation. Toward this end, experiments are already ongoing to mature eggs removed from the ovaries of aborted late term female fetuses. Other sources of eggs could be female cadavers or ovaries surgically removed from girls or women of childbearing years. In 2008, scientists will advance substantially toward maturing eggs taken from ovarian tissues in animal and human experiments, leading to potentially overcoming the ‘egg issue.’

No laws will be passed to permit egg buying for biotechnological research : Prior to the iPSC breakthrough, I would have predicted that the scientists’ demand for eggs to be used in cloning research would result in some laws explicitly permitting scientists to engage in human egg buying schemes. Now, I think that will not happen. Indeed, it is possible that further inroads will be made prohibiting such purchases in the coming year.

The Bush ESCR funding restrictions will not be overturned: Last year I predicted, erroneously, that the Bush embryonic stem cell funding restrictions would fall. I was planning to make the same prediction this year—until the great iPSC breakthrough took most of the political air out of the issue. I now believe that the steam has escaped from that issue and that the Bush policy will survive to the end of his term.

There will be no changes in the law about human cloning: Before iPSCs made their debut, serious political efforts were underway, such as in Michigan and Canada, to overturn existing total cloning bans. In other jurisdictions, efforts were underway to outlaw ‘reproductive cloning,’ while explicitly permitting research cloning. At least some of these efforts seemed likely to succeed in 2008. But I now believe they will fail. At the same time, the political atmosphere has not changed so radically that it will now support new cloning bans. I thus predict that no states or countries will legalize or outlaw human cloning in 2008.

Washington State Will Reject Legalizing Assisted Suicide : It is almost a sure thing that Washington Governor Booth Gardner—a very wealthy man—will finance an initiative in Washington-State to legalize assisted suicide. The question is: Will it pass? My head tells me that it will: The media is biased; Gardner has deep pockets; and, as always, the polls look bad. But my heart tells me that it will fail. The agenda is profoundly wrong. A powerful, political strange-bedfellow coalition made up of liberal secularists—such as disability rights activists and conservative religionists, such as pro lifers—have kept assisted suicide at bay since 1994, including defeating initiatives in Michigan (1998) and Maine (2000) and will engage the Washington debate. Being a congenital optimist, I am going with my heart: The initiative will lose in a very close vote.

No State Legislature will Pass Assisted Suicide Legislation : Several states have seen legislative attempts in recent years to legalize assisted suicide, including California (still pending), Vermont, Arizona, and Hawaii. With 2008 being an election year—and with legislators waiting to see what happens in Washington—expect no states to legalize assisted suicide in 2008.

Futile Care Theory Will Remain Stalled : Several states permit hospital ethics committees to refuse wanted life-sustaining treatment based on quality of life judgments. Known as Futile Care Theory or medical futility, Texas law is the most explicit in this regard, permitting treatment to be withdrawn 10 days after a determination by a hospital committee that the treatment is ‘inappropriate.’ Attempts to impose medical futility in Texas faltered in the face of negative publicity and litigation seeking to find the law unconstitutional. Expect this standoff to continue in 2008.

This much I can predict with confidence: Unexpected scientific breakthroughs or public bioethical controversies will roil society in 2008. Expect the CBC to be on top of these developments working to educate the public and ensure that the values of what has been called ‘The Biotech Century’ remain committed to the sanctity and equality of human life.

Happy New Year to one and all.

Wesley J. Smith is a special consultant to the CBC, Sr. Fellow with the Discovery Institute and blogs daily at Secondhand Smoke.